Sunday, November 2, 2008

The Calm Before the Storm


This is the week we have all been waiting for.

When the US decides on the next Leader of the Free World.

Change is the Battle Cry, but sometimes you should be careful what you wish for. I have a feeling that the changes we will see in the next term will not be pretty. If the market is a leading indicator we know what it thinks.

October was the worst month in the last 21 years with the damage taking place in the first week of trading. Since then we have seen continued volitility as I believe a 4th wave has begun.

For those of you who have been day trading, (the only relatively safe alternative in this environment), we have seen a nice bounce off the bottom as shorts cover and a few bargain hunters start picking up percieved value).

Whether a sucker rally or a true bottom only time will tell.

We have seen the same action in the commodities side with small rallies in coffee, sugar, cattle, beans, silver, copper and crude.

However, you still can't ignore the $9.2 billion removed from mutual funds last week. Sure it is a lot less then the $43.3 billion removed from funds 3 weeks ago, but we will need to see inflows to have a sustained rally in my view.

Have you been watching those earnings announcements - not a pretty picture.

Be careful out there.

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