Onward and Upward

Well the consumer confidence numbers were enough to get the markets rally back on track. Did not add to shorts and stopped Tuesday morning. Did not get long.

OIL on the other hand I could not ignore. This has been my favourite trade this year and I jumped back in again this week. We do try to initiate a lot of positions from a counter trend trade perspective. When they initially do not work out you definately want a re- entry strategy so as not to miss the continuation move.

The gold trade continues to perform for us with a gap up Friday to end the week nicley. With the US$ tanking commodities in general is the place to be.

Our WFMI short did follow through. I took profits Friday with the market strength and will watch to get short again at the low.

Sell in May and Go Away

An old Wall Steer Adage but does it apply now. As you know I was ready to add to my short Q's last week if it took out the previous weeks lows. This hasn't happened but still looks toppy to me and I will be ready this week after the long weekend. Of course this may just end up being a 4th wave here with one more move up in June/July. In the meantime I am still short.


Although I sold my OIL position the week before , last week saw new highs Wednesday. I did not chase this on with the gap to big. Will look to get long again on hourly basis if the gaps get reasonable.


Gold continues to make new highs for us and should be long this one.


One other position we added on Friday short was Whole Foods. (Thanks Dan) This is a text book setup with the MACD divergence. Hopefully we will see some follow through here.

All Good Things Must Come To An End

As expected the markets finally took a breather. If you are not already short we have a nice entry now below Wednesday's low. This applies to a number of the DOW stocks as well so if Wednesdays low is taken out I would want to be on the bear side of things. A lot of stocks and the indexes themselves have not been able to penetrate their 200 day MA's. That will be a critical resistence to get through for the bulls to keep their heads high.

I also took my profits this week on my OIL trade. Like the Q's this one worked out like a charm. I have not been as anxious to short this one yet but will be watching closely this week for either a re-entry long or short. Need more info from the market at this point.

The gold trade was the only one that kept up this week making new highs on Friday. Lets see what this still has to offer.

Time for a Break

Well ththis sure has been a great ride. The Q's continued the upward climb making another new high this week. Friday's strong action resulted from slowing job loss rates and relief on the banking front. Although the other markets continued upward Friday Nasdaq was not as strong.
In fact I have raised my stop and am considering a stop and reverse trade on Monday depending on how the open goes. You can see from the hourly chart below we have had a sell off Thursday and it was not able to gather much strenght on Friday. I can't help but consider a short Monday and would have to at least be out of my longs below that $33.88 low.
In the meantime my patience has paid off in the OIL trade with continued strength all through the week.

I have also been long silver which continues up slowly. I am considering adding gold on Monday. It looks ready to make its move here.

Never Say Never

Most people thought a rally like this was impossible, but they are kicking themselves now. Eight weeks in a row! I am still trading longs only and patiantly waiting for a short signal. Just like picking bottoms anyone picking a top for the last month have paid for it.

I am also still long oil waiting for something to happen here. Finally had some action on Friday with a rally up to $19.50. Still feel the $17 low will hold and will wait this move out.